| Field | Value |
|---|
| Purpose | HROI recalibration bridge for BASED Loop 3 deck/model/narrative package. |
| Source model | /Users/mc_ace/obsidian_local/interim_placeholder_works/temp_work_assets/+mga14_customers/based-resilience/production_outputs/phase_2_investor_package_update/based_loop2/based_resilience_house_three_statement_driver_model_26_0504_excel_safe.xlsx |
| Current source-model issue | Useful driver architecture, but current 2026-2028 revenue ramp is too aggressive for first-send investor base case. |
| Recommended posture | Separate Proof-case, Expansion case, and Legacy high scenario. |
| Access tier | matias-only |
| Created by | copilot_cli / financial_analyst |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | HROI note |
|---|
| Total revenue | 749651 | 8606000 | 17692000 | 34752000 | Too aggressive as first-send base; use as legacy high scenario / diligence upside. |
| P1 Platform / Comility | 564000 | 1950000 | 4280000 | 21340000 | 2028 platform ramp requires proof of licence conversion, churn and ARPU. |
| P2 Incubator / Defence Elevator | 0 | 6000000 | 12000000 | 12000000 | 12 x EUR500k programs in 2026 is the main credibility issue. |
| P3 Munich Security Breakfast | 148000 | 410000 | 500000 | 500000 | More defensible because convening activity exists, but sponsor evidence still needed. |
| P4 Resilience Houses | 0 | 246000 | 912000 | 912000 | Should remain proof-gated / scenario until utilization and capex/public support gates clear. |
| P1 paid licences | 1070 | 2525 | 3680 | 6220 | Needs source-backed conversion and churn assumptions. |
| P2 programs | 0 | 12 | 24 | 24 | Needs named pipeline, delivery capacity and conversion evidence. |
| P4 active locations | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Keep out of base case before proof. |
| Other / transition revenue reconciliation | 37651 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Explains 2025 gap between total revenue and visible P1-P4 components; keep as source-model reconciliation only. |
| Scenario | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 3-year use | Deck treatment |
|---|
| Flat current revenue floor | 500000 | 500000 | 500000 | MSC/MSB Breakfast event revenue already generated in the prior year and expected to repeat flat this year. | Main deck / first-send floor. |
| Expansion ceiling | 2500000 | 7500000 | 22500000 | 2026 ceiling includes EUR0.5m floor + EUR2.0m incremental new revenue if pilots/programs convert. | Main deck as upside ceiling; appendix detail. |
| Legacy high scenario | 8606000 | 17692000 | 34752000 | Original driver model output before HROI floor/expansion separation. | Diligence appendix only. |
| Reconciliation note | EUR 0.5m is the flat-current-revenue floor from MSC / Munich Security Breakfast event revenue, not speculative new-product revenue. EUR 2.5m is the 2026 expansion ceiling including that floor. |
| Case | Product | Units | Price / value | Revenue | Evidence state | HROI gate |
|---|
| Current floor | MSC/MSB Breakfast event revenue | 1 | 500000 | 500000 | Prior-year generated revenue; expected flat repeat this year | Source/accounting tie-out before investor release. |
| Current floor total | | | | 500000 | Static visible total | Not new-product proof. |
| Incremental expansion | Strategic programs / defence elevator | 4 | 250000 | 1000000 | Upside | Named pipeline and delivery partners required. |
| Incremental expansion | Resilience Watchdesk retainers | 3 | 180000 | 540000 | Upside | 3 customers at EUR15k/month; requires pilots. |
| Incremental expansion | Diligence sprints | 6 | 35000 | 210000 | Upside | Investor/operator demand required. |
| Incremental expansion | Member / sponsor / event intelligence | 1 | 250000 | 250000 | Upside | Needs sponsor/member conversion. |
| Incremental expansion total | | | | 2000000 | Static visible total | Upside above current floor. |
| Expansion ceiling incl current floor | | | | 2500000 | Static visible total | EUR0.5m floor + EUR2.0m incremental expansion. |
| Use-of-funds layer | EUR allocation | HROI role | Release gate |
|---|
| Fixed operating layer | 350000 | Founders/core ops, lean team, minimum tools, finance/admin/legal hygiene. | Must support 18-month runway without assuming high scenario. |
| Product and HROI infrastructure | 180000 | Source index, persona graph, intelligence room, secure knowledge workflow, dashboard prototype. | No external customer data exposure without review. |
| GTM / design partner conversion | 170000 | Founder-led sales, partner outreach, owned media cadence, pilot packaging. | Must track CAC and conversion by channel. |
| Customer delivery reserve | 150000 | Human-reviewed pilots, diligence sprints, watchdesk delivery. | Variable delivery should scale with signed revenue. |
| Legal / finance / claims review | 80000 | Counsel, financial model review, investor docs, public-support and cap-table gates. | Required before investor-version claims. |
| Contingency / cash buffer | 70000 | Minimum cash discipline and downside protection. | Preserve runway; no capex-first spend. |
| Total | 1000000 |
| KPI | Definition | Target posture | Why it matters |
|---|
| Qualified trust relationships | Named high-value relationships with reason to engage. | 15-25 qualified relationships coded by buyer tier before first-send follow-up. | Measures access quality. |
| Paid pilot conversion | Design-partner conversations converting into paid pilots. | 3-5 design partner conversations; at least 2 paid pilots by month 9 for incremental revenue above the current MSC/MSB floor. | Measures willingness to pay. |
| Intelligence-room retention | Customers requesting recurring room/watchdesk updates. | At least 1 renewal / extension / recurring cadence request by month 12. | Measures workflow value. |
| HROI accepted-asset ratio | Accepted sources / total reviewed sources. | Accepted asset ratio tracked monthly; keep rejected/review states visible, target >60% accepted after source registry stabilizes. | Measures source reliability. |
| Source-linked brief reuse | Outputs reused across deck, room, sprint, or workflow. | At least 2 reused source-linked briefs per customer output by month 6. | Measures knowledge compounding. |
| Warm introductions / action maps | Follow-up actions created from intelligence outputs. | At least 10 owner-assigned warm-intro/action-map items from first 3 pilots. | Measures practical utility. |
| Gross margin per package | Revenue minus direct delivery cost by product. | >=60% gross margin on Intelligence Room / Watchdesk delivery by month 6; path to 70%+ by year 2. | Measures scalability. |
| Slide | HROI issue | Required v4.1 action | First-send treatment |
|---|
| 7/8 | First product too implicit | Add Intelligence Room + Watchdesk Pilot label. | Core slide. |
| 9 | Customer buckets too compressed | Restore five buyer tiers. | Core slide. |
| 10/11 | May still feel like TAM theatre | Show proof-case / expansion / legacy high separation. | Condensed. |
| 15/16 | Aggressive revenue overwhelms credibility | Move EUR8.61m/17.69m/34.75m to appendix. | Replace with proof-case. |
| 18 | Product pillars lack evidence state | Add buyer/product/price/volume/evidence status. | Core slide. |
| 20 | AI ROI not role-specific | Add role-specific ROI table. | Condense with moat or product. |
| 21 | Moat not visual enough | Create trust-signal-HROI-workflow flywheel. | Core slide. |
| 23 | Use of funds strong but needs proof milestones | Add source index, 3 pilots, first renewal, proof revenue threshold. | Core slide. |
| Gate | Pass condition | Current status | Owner |
|---|
| Revenue gate | Main deck separates proof-case, expansion, and legacy high scenario. | Needs v4.1 edit. | MC + financial analyst + deck owner |
| Product gate | Wedge product named consistently. | Needs v4.1 edit. | MC + Lippold / product owner |
| Evidence gate | Claims marked proven/open/scenario/gated. | Partly present; move nearer front. | MC + review-agent + counsel where legal claim |
| Runway gate | EUR1m tied to fixed burn and revenue-funded variable delivery. | Needs model bridge. | MC + financial analyst + Lippold |
| Moat gate | Trust-signal-HROI-workflow flywheel visible. | Needs visual slide. | MC + visual / deck owner |
| Deck gate | First-send deck 12-14 slides; v4 remains diligence. | Not yet done. | MC + deck owner |
| Product | 2026 proof/expansion revenue | Direct cost % | Gross profit | Gross margin % | Gate |
|---|
| Intelligence Room / Watchdesk pilots | 240000 | 0.4 | 144000 | 0.6 | Pilot delivery should prove >=60% GM. |
| Diligence / opportunity sprints | 120000 | 0.35 | 78000 | 0.65 | Keep fixed-scope; avoid bespoke sprawl. |
| Member knowledge / premium access | 80000 | 0.3 | 56000 | 0.7 | High reuse potential if source room exists. |
| MSB / event intelligence / sponsor pack | 60000 | 0.45 | 33000 | 0.55 | Tie to existing convening; watch event costs. |
| Strategic programs / defence elevator | 1000000 | 0.5 | 500000 | 0.5 | Not base case; delivery partners required. |
| Resilience Watchdesk retainers | 540000 | 0.4 | 324000 | 0.6 | Recurring margin improves with templates and source reuse. |
| Expansion diligence sprints | 210000 | 0.35 | 136500 | 0.65 | Fixed-scope repeatable format required. |
| Member / sponsor / event intelligence upside | 250000 | 0.45 | 137500 | 0.55 | Needs sponsor inventory and owned audience cadence. |
| Release gate | Required owner | Pass condition | Current status |
|---|
| Management sign-off | MC + Lippold | Approved first-send deck, one-pager, ask, and target list. | Open |
| Legal / counsel review | Counsel + MC | SAFE wording, cap-table/instrument references, and claims language reviewed. | Open |
| Financial model review | Financial analyst + Lippold/finance owner | Flat current MSC/MSB revenue floor, expansion ceiling, runway, and gross-margin assumptions reviewed. | Open |
| Claims proof pack | Documentation/review lane + MC | Institutional, de:hub, public-sector, defence/security, and partner claims mapped to source status. | Partly open |
| Public-support treatment | Public-support specialist + MC | Applications/requests/awards and restricted-use treatment separated. | Open |
| Cap-table / instrument treatment | Counsel + finance owner | Current shareholder/instrument treatment approved for investor wording. | Open |
| Model/deck consistency | Deck owner + financial analyst | Deck numbers match HROI bridge: EUR0.5m floor, EUR2.5m expansion ceiling, legacy high scenario appendix only. | Open |
| Access-tier/redaction | MC + review-agent | External deck has no raw confidential filenames, sensitive transaction details, or unsupported claims. | Open |
| MSC/MSB revenue-floor source tie-out | MC + Lippold/finance owner | Prior-year MSC/MSB Breakfast event revenue and repeat-year expectation supported by accounting/source pack. | Open |