Financial Model Executive Outline

# BASED Financial Model Executive Outline - Phase 3 Recalibration 26_0515

Access tier: matias-only

## Controlling Change

The active phase-3 model cuts down the prior 26_0511 lower-case case and now uses the current Lippold membership package pricing. The revised active revenue path is:

| Year | Active phase-3 revenue | Main driver |
| --- | ---: | --- |
| 2026 | EUR830,000 | Membership package conversion inside the 1,000-member ceiling, plus marginal media/incubation/event lines. |
| 2027 | EUR2,619,000 | Membership packages plus media services; incubation remains marginal. |
| 2028 | EUR8,950,000 | Higher-value media services and expanded event formats after cap-expansion proof. |

The old EUR2.0m / EUR6.0m / EUR18.0m path is now superseded for the main deck and should be retained only as an audit bridge or upside comparison.

## Membership Engine

2026 is membership-led, but the pricing unit is now the license package, not the individual seat. The initial ceiling is 1,000 total members, including free members and the military/government quota. The 2026 model still uses 990 total seats/members, including 270 paid seats:

| Category | 2026 seats/members | Seats per license | Implied licenses | Price / license / year | 2026 revenue |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Free community member | 620 | n/a | n/a | EUR0 | EUR0 |
| Military / government quota | 100 | n/a | n/a | EUR0 | EUR0 |
| Individual* license | 120 | 1 | 120 | EUR1,300 | EUR156,000 |
| Institutional* license | 120 | 3 | 40 | EUR6,500 | EUR260,000 |
| Patron* license | 30 | 5 | 6 | EUR19,000 | EUR114,000 |
| **Total** | **990** |  | **166 paid licenses** |  | **EUR530,000** |

Paid conversion, especially Institutional* and Patron* memberships, is therefore still the main revenue gate. Free member growth is useful only if it creates qualified conversion and proprietary signal.

*Tier-name and package-pricing change confirmed from the 30 Apr Lippold financing memo and May 11/13 call evidence; deployed across the phase-3 package on 26_0516 00:43 CEST and pricing patched on 26_0516 01:44 CEST. Internal crosswalk only: Individual = former Cadett, Institutional = former Comrade, Patron = former Avantgarde.

## Pricing Reconciliation Gate

Replacing the old per-seat anchors with current package pricing reduces modeled 2026 membership revenue from EUR900,000 to EUR530,000 under the current 120 / 120 / 30 paid-seat allocation. With EUR100,000 each for media, incubation and event expansion, the 2026 active total becomes EUR830,000. Any return to a EUR900,000 membership line requires a changed paid-seat mix, higher license count, higher pricing, or a separately evidenced sponsor/member package; it should not be presented as final without MC/Lippold/finance-owner approval.

## Service Timing

Media services are not modeled as fully sellable before Q4 2026. 2026 media/intelligence services are therefore marginal at EUR100,000. Incubation and strategic programs are capped at max 0.2x of the prior plan in 2026 and 2027, resulting in EUR100,000 in 2026 and EUR400,000 in 2027. The 2027 plan is therefore membership plus media, with incubation explicitly kept marginal until named partners and delivery capacity are proven.

The 1,000-member ceiling is binding for 2026 and 2027. The 2028 model can expand to 2,000 members only after paid conversion quality, source workflow, event economics and delivery bandwidth have been proven. Treat 2028 as a gated expansion case, not an automatic extrapolation from the first 1,000-member pool.

## Addendum Sheets

The workbook now includes four explicit gate sheets:

| Sheet | Purpose |
| --- | --- |
| `18_WC_Schedule_Gates` | Shows MSB, Bits Defense and media pre-financing exposure, cash-protection assumptions and proof state. |
| `19_Capacity_Ramp_Gates` | Connects the 2026/2027 revenue lines to delivery-capacity proof requirements. |
| `20_Patron_Sensitivity` | Shows dependency on Patron conversion under current package pricing; active case Patron revenue is EUR114,000 and membership revenue is EUR530,000. |
| `21_2028_Cap_Expansion_Gate` | Makes the 2028 move from 1,000 to 2,000 members conditional rather than automatic. |

## Source And Evidence Treatment

The available `new_recording_39` transcript supports the historical package-sales caveat, Breakfast proof-of-concept logic, invoice/BOM pricing gate, and product direction around database/RAG, customized reports, premium workflows and optional API/data access.

The May 11 and May 13 recordings have now been locally transcribed. May 11 supports Bits Defense, Fellowship delivery capacity, MSB over-demand, recurring club monetization, secure-venue need and content-for-perks logic. May 13 supports the HROI framing, 1,000-member cap, paid-seat economics, Q4 media timing, semantic intelligence layer and use-of-funds discipline.

Working capital should be explained as a short-cycle execution bridge. The team-source clarification is that sellable venues/formats can be sold out within roughly 2+ weeks. That should not be booked as closed revenue until evidenced, but it changes the investor logic: the round funds the cash gap between committing credible venues/formats and converting sponsor/member pre-sales, with sell-out velocity, deposit schedule and downside timing shown as model gates.

## Release Guidance

The slide deck should stop presenting abstract platform scale before the operating gates. The investor version should show category, seat count, price per seat, conversion assumption and evidence state. Unsupported claims should remain visible as gates rather than being blended into polished language.